When Netflix introduced video streaming in 2007, TV-watching habits changed dramatically. Now something similar is happening in the workplace with generative artificial intelligence (GenAI). HR leaders are on the front lines as the new ways of working evolve.

The conventional wisdom says the HR function will change to have less rote work, more strategic work, with more time and attention for people issues like talent development, recruiting, succession planning, and organizational design. But what will it actually mean?

This year, many of the fears and hopes associated with artificial intelligence are coming to pass. It’s easy to overstate the fears — and to underestimate the risks. Let’s clarify them by remembering exactly what this technology is — and what it is not.

The images, of Yann LeCun, Geoffrey Hinton, and Yoshua Bengio, are from Genius Makers by Cade Metz

The coders and creators whose names appear in headlines today – people like LeCun, Hinton, and Bengio – may be reshaping our world, but it was hardly certain at the outset that their version of AI, with unsupervised code learning from random experience, would prevail. Genius Makers reminds me of another great book about breakthrough pathfinders with an uncertain future. Arthur Koestler’s The Sleepwalkers, originally published in 1959, focuses on three 15th-century luminaries: the timid Nicholas Copernicus, the hapless “cosmic architect” Johannes Kepler, and the scientific pioneer and heretic Galileo Galilei.

A “Bright Swan” scenario of how inflation might turn out to be a short-term phenomenon.

A “Bright Swan” scenario of how democratizing software engineering can lead to a less frightening future for machine learning and AI bias.

“Bright Swans” are unexpected events, like “black swans” — that appear from out of nowhere and make things better. Such events do exist - but they aren’t always noticed. When thinking about the future, we should look out for bright swan possibilities. Sometimes we can help them come to pass.